RBI MPC Meet: Inflation will come down or EMI, RBI will decide today

RBI has increased the repo rates by 250 bps between cycles from May 2022 to February 2023. In fact, during this period the inflation in the country was more than 6 percent of the tolerance level of RBI. To reduce which RBI had to increase the interest rates.

Today i.e. Thursday is the last day of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decisions taken in the meeting along with the announcement of the policy rate. At the same time, the estimated figures of inflation and GDP will also be kept in front. If experts are to be believed, RBI will not make any change in the repo rate, but inflation and GDP figures can be upgraded. RBI MPC has not made any change in the interest rates in the month of April. What will be the stand of RBI regarding the next cycle, that too can be announced. This is mainly due to El Nino and Monsoon conditions. Because of which the possibility of inflation is visible in the country.

250 bps profit in 11 months

RBI has increased the repo rates by 250 bps between cycles from May 2022 to February 2023. In fact, during this period the inflation in the country was more than 6 percent of the tolerance level of RBI. To reduce which RBI had to increase the interest rates. First increased by 40 basis points in May 2022. After that, 50 basis points were increased for three consecutive times. Then there was an increase of 35 basis points in December 2022 and the last increase of 25 points was seen in the month of February 2023. Since then no increase has been seen. At present, the repo rate is 6.50 percent.

What have changed since the February MPC meeting?

Inflation: In the month of April, the retail inflation has come down to 4.7 percent at the lower level of 18 months and in the month of March the same inflation was at 5.7 percent. In February this figure was more than 6 per cent. It is clear that the inflation figures have come down continuously in two months and inflation is expected to remain low in May.

GDP Growth: In the recent report of NSO, GDP growth figures have been seen better than expected. The GDP of the fourth quarter of FY23 has been seen to be more than 6 percent. At the same time, the real GDP of FY2023 has gone up by more than 7 percent. FY 2024 has been estimated at 6.5 percent.

Crude oil prices: When the RBI's monetary policy meeting was held in April, the crude oil prices were around $85 at that time. Since then, there is a continuous decline in it. Currently, crude oil prices are hovering in the range of $75 to $77 per barrel.

Manufacturing Sector: There has also been an increase in the figures of the country's manufacturing sector. In the month of May, the manufacturing PMI figures reached 58.7. On the other hand, there has been a slight decline in the service sector, which was at 62 in April, which has come down to 61.2 in the month of May.

GST Collection: In the month of April, the GST collection record reached lifetime with Rs 1.9 lakh crore. In the month of May, this figure came down to Rs 1.6 lakh crore. By the way, this figure was more than in May of last year.