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Thursday, December 3, 2020

India stands for UK, UK stands for India, both have rejected the EU


In a strategic move, India has invited UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as the Chief Guest for the Republic Day, which Johnson also accepted. 
PM Modi invited Boris Johnson during his phone conversation on 27 November. India has taken this step at a time when Brexit is very close and the dispute between EU and UK is increasing. This means that India will give priority to who among the EU and the UK is already clear. India now stands for the UK and the UK seems to have rejected both the EU.

Indeed, given India's large trade market, both the EU and the UK want to improve their relationship in the future, but India has now given the message of prioritizing the UK due to the EU's growing proximity to China.

There are no two opinions about it being fixed, but whether it will be a hard break or a soft break is not yet decided. But as the dispute is going on between the EU and the UK, it seems difficult to be soft brokered. The UK and the European Union have said that there remain serious differences over the trade deal after Brexit. Britain's negotiator Lord David Frost said that despite progress, "widespread differences" persist in some areas. Not only this, there is a difference of opinion on the sharing of the water sector and the issue remains as to how many European boats will be able to go fishing in the British waters next year. At the same time, the matter is also stuck on the need for a mechanism of settlement on future differences.

Hard Brexit means a Brexit in which the UK will relinquish membership of the EU single market and make its own laws and gain full control of immigration. In the event of a "hard break", the UK's currency pound will fall to its lowest level and the UK will need a market to absorb its exports. Currently, the UK exports more than 44 per cent to EU countries. The UK will need trading partners after Brexit. Not only this, leaving the EU's Single Market will force London to expand into other markets, particularly the Commonwealth countries. In such a situation, India is the most important option for him.

The EU will also be in the same situation, in the event of the UK's separation it will need a country that can fit its role. For both of these reasons, India appears to be the best choice for the EU and UK.

But India is not showing any interest in giving relations with the EU a new height. During the recently held 15th  India-European Union Summit , there was no talk of any kind of Free Trade Deal. A Free Trade Deal has been pending since 2007 between India and the European Union. Even after this time's virtual summit, no official deadline for this free trade agreement was announced. It is clear that India wants to keep trade with the EU limited. There are three reasons for this. First EU's deep trade relationship with China. The second is the continued support of EU de facto leader Angela Merkel to China and the third is China's growing influence in the EU through 17 + 1. China has spread its BRI across Europe through 17 + 1 which India does not support.

Overall, not showing interest in further enhancing trade relations with the EU on the one hand, and on the other hand, continuing to increase relations with the UK, as well as calling the Prime Minister as its national guest, shows that India and The UK wants to increase mutual cooperation by denying both countries the EU.

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